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AI Bubble & Capital Cycle
Fundamental research snapshot dated 2026-10-17. Company reporting periods differ and need individual refreshes. A price pullback does not establish that bubble risk is gone. Full narrative: AI Cycle Positioning (2026-08-30) (Chinese).
Snapshot assessment · 2026-10-17Validation window — not the washout
Assess spending, revenue and cash returns separately. These research grades are not a validated crash forecasting model. Current allocation and phase caps are on the entry-plans page.
Seven stages · research grades, not probabilities
① Breakthrough/narrative② Demand validation③ CapEx boom④ AI revenue catches up⑤ ROI + financing⑥ Overcapacity⑦ Deleveraging/washout
AI 产业周期3.8
AI 盈利4
AI 资本开支4.8
AI 金融化5
AI 估值5
系统性杠杆危机2.5
Six-company capital circulation
| Company | CapEx/CFO | Cash flow | Financing reliance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 原口径待同表重算 | H1 CFO $74.421B；NI含投资收益 | 信用承诺需升级监控 | Yellow |
| MSFT | ~63% | FY26 FCF ≈ $67B | 低→中 | Yellow |
| META | ~79% | Q2 FCF $0.78B（margin ~1.3%） | 中 | Yellow |
| AMZN | ~105% | TTM FCF -$7.6B | 中 | Orange |
| GOOGL | ~115% | Q2 FCF -$5.9B（上市首次转负） | 中→高 | Orange |
| ORCL | ~174% | FY26 FCF -$23.7B | 高 | Red |
Red-light checklist
2/6 in this snapshotCapEx 加速成立——六巨头 CapEx 全面新高，MSFT 指引 $50B+/季
AI 收入增速下滑未触发——NVDA +106%、Cloud +82%、AWS +37%
ΔFCF/ΔCapEx 恶化未触发——转化率待 Q3 季节点回填
系统性债务上升部分——ORCL/GOOGL 个案成立，系统未成立
长端收益率上升成立——10Y 4.73%，AI+财政资本需求被点名
信用利差走阔未触发——HY OAS 2.63% 仍处低位
The checklist is not a causal or regression model. A fall does not require all six conditions; untripped items do not establish safety.
Backfill log
- 2026-08-30首期建立：六公司分层（NVDA🟢 → ORCL🔴）+ 红灯 2/6 成立、1/6 部分——判定「验证期」
- 2026-08-31预注册 9–12 月裁决日历（DELL 3% 裁决 / CIEN 首卡裁决 / MU FQ4 / TSM·ASML Q3 / UNH Q3 / POWL FQ4）
- 2026-10-15全持仓LOGOS重审：股票64.5%/现金35.5%，META/GOOGL退出，NVDA7%；新增MU/VRT小仓，旧事件规则仅归档。
- 2026-09-29Muse 扩展到 Enterprise Platform、NVDA Q2/Q3 需求通过；组合新增 META 1% starter、清仓无法按持有即买入规则参与的 VST，AVGO 补至 2%，AI 进入应用层与现金回报分层验证。